As the
protests grow worldwide, with financial districts of major cities being
occupied everywhere, with the member countries of the Euro group trying to
stabilise the currency and find some way of dealing with the debts of Greece
and (potentially) other countries, under constant attacks from that strange
entity known as “the markets,” there seems to be some hope growing that the
pain in the developed world is finally reaching the level where the demand for
fundamental change is finally emerging from the small niches in which it has
huddled (largely unheard) since the collapse of the iron curtain to encompass
more and more of the mainstream and make it increasingly undeniable.
It is a
truism that things generally have to get worse before they get better and that
a combination of ordinary inertia, fear, conservatism and resignation with our
own personal situation means that it usually takes quite a bit to happen before
a sufficient number of people finally decide that enough is enough and start,
first, to seriously listen to those preaching radical alternatives and,
secondly, to take to the streets to demand that something is done. Yet when it
comes, it can come quickly – a tipping point is reached, the prevailing balance
is lost and we enter uncharted territories as old paradigms dissolve and the
search for new ones begins.
For forty
five years after the Second World War, a stable paradigm prevailed; a world
order dominated by the competition between two mutually exclusive ideologies.
At the end of the ninth decade of the last century, one of those ideologies
imploded and (with a few small exceptions like North
Korea and Cuba
In the
event, it took less than two decades for the new paradigm to start to show
serious cracks and fissures, the consequences of which are still working their
way through the immensely complex, interdependent systems and structures of
which our human polity is made up. The collapse of the US
Moreover,
they’re still doing it, and the amazing thing is that those (in the western
world) who are elected by the people to run things continue to jump to their
dictates. The ongoing Euro-crisis is a very good example of this. Leaving aside
Greece – which is a country with underlying serious problems as a result of
decade-long overspending on current accounts, fuelled by a culture of
tax-evasion by everyone, but particularly the rich – none of the other European
countries currently seen as dangerously weak have such massive problems that
they need be regarded as necessarily being on the verge of collapse. Ireland
was the victim of a classical financial bubble (driven by property speculation)
bursting and is in its current state of difficulty because of an unconditional
guarantee given to the financial institutions (on the insistence of the
European Central Bank) who had played a major part in creating and sustaining
the bubble. Portugal , Spain and Italy
(with Belgium on the verge
of joining them) certainly have difficulties, but their debt situations are all
much healthier than that of the USA
Of course,
this is not the official language used to describe the process; here the bon mot is market confidence. That
this increasingly has little to do with basic economic realities and far more
to do with artificially induced expectations, bets on future developments of
every kind (and bets on the bets and betting on losses), all with the goal of
maximising profits for the major players in the complex global financial game
no matter what happens, is becoming clearer to everyone. It’s a roulette game
where every number on the wheel has the colour green and the number 0. The bank
always wins – rarely does anyone else.
The course
of events in the past few years has led to a growing realisation of the
parasitic nature of the corporate financial world structures and the failure –
or seeming inability – of political leaders to exercise any kind of effective
control over them. And, as a result, the level of public indignation and
protest is growing. In many quarters, the realisation seems to be dawning that
things can’t go on this way, that something has to give. Describing his
perceptions of the US
“[The corporate bosses] … think it is back to
the business of harvesting what is left of America Versailles or in the Forbidden City who never understood until the very end
that their world was collapsing.”
According
the Hedges, “this is what revolution looks like.” He may well be right. He goes
on to list the various preconditions set out by the historian Crane Brinton for
a successful revolution and sees them all as being present in the current
situation. And this is the point at which my worries begin. Brinton’s classical
analysis, The Anatomy of Revolutions, concerns itself with the English
(1640s), American, French, and Russian Revolutions. And three of these four
were accompanied by vast suffering and bloodshed and, particularly in the case
of the last two, finished up devouring myriads of their children before
culminating in the dictatorships of Bonaparte and Stalin.
Brinton’s
book was first published in 1938 and the world has moved on quite a bit since.
In contrast to his generally cautionary view concerning the progress of
revolutions, the counter-example of the events around the collapse of communism
in 1989/90 can be given, or even the example of the “Arab Spring” of this year.
But before we all start flocking to the barricades, a few considerations are in
order.
The events
of 1989/90 were momentous; particularly their speed, restraint and generally
peaceful courses. But there were a number of factors at work which suggest that
they were – and will remain – unique. In the first place, there was a clear
vision of an alternative model of society, that which was seen as functioning
in the west. Secondly, there was general support and encouragement for the
dramatic changes taking place from the rest of the world, particularly those in
power there. Thirdly, there was the clearly perceived unwillingness of the
imperial power under its new leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, which had upheld and
guaranteed the status quo ante, to
use force to impede the move for change. Regarding the “Arab Spring,” this is a
process which is still unfolding; it is as yet too early to make any conclusive
judgements concerning its results.
“Revolutions, like
Saturn, devour their own children.”
The saying
dates back to the French Revolution and was, most famously, uttered by Danton
during his trial. It is this observation which gives me cause for concern in
the present situation. My initial inclination is not to shed any tears should
the current corrupt exploitative system, in which the world is ultimately
controlled by a small oligarchy of the immensely rich, whose are prepared to go
on raping the whole planet and everything on it to protect and expand their own
privileges and power, be brought down. More, it is not hard to imagine
scenarios in which I myself would find myself on the streets, howling with the
mob to put the mothafuckas up against the wall. But then I start to ask myself
what we want to replace them with?
There is no
shortage of visions of alternative world orders, suggestions of how to do
things differently, but there is little consensus on what they should be. Our
globalised world has developed into a very complex interconnected networked
system where nearly everything is dependent on nearly everything else and there
is a great danger that if key blocks in that system are destroyed, the whole
thing will come collapsing around our ears – particularly if it is not clear
with what they should be replaced. I see little sense in a process which will
lead to a situation analogous to that in France
in 1794 or Russia
The
consensus seems to be growing that the present world order is intolerable. I sense
that what we now need most is a wide public dialogue on a global level leading
to concrete suggestions concerning alternatives and agreement about their
implementation. I have little faith that the official forums (like, for
example, the UN) are at all inclined to further such processes. I have some
hope that the groundswell of alternative methods of dialogue and interaction
offered by the digital revolution may lead to the evolution of new structures
which will bear concrete fruits in the real world. But the dangers that the
unbearable contradictions in the current systems, where the pressure for their
destruction is increasing, may lead to general turmoil and systemic collapse
should not be underestimated. If we are not clear about concrete alternatives,
we might find ourselves (that remnant still alive) cowering shivering, hungry,
fearful and traumatised in the ruins of a world we have managed to wreck.
Pictures retrieved from
